Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0): Comprehensive Analysis
Deep analysis of Türkiye's Second NDC (NDC 3.0): 2035 emission target, 7 sectoral mitigation strategies, 11 adaptation priorities, and 2053 net-zero commitment.
Executive Summary
Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) represents a comprehensive and enhanced climate commitment submitted under the Paris Agreement. Building upon the updated First NDC, this contribution establishes clear emission reduction targets for 2030 (695 Mt CO₂ eq.)and 2035 (643 Mt CO₂ eq.). Notably, 2035 is designated as a single‑year target under the Second NDC. The charts below indicate that 2030 is the updated first NDC target and 2035 is the second NDC target, supporting the long-term commitment to net-zero by 2053.
Türkiye's Emission Scenarios and Targets
Türkiye — Second NDC (NDC 3.0)
Reference Year: 2018 | Target Year: 2035 | Net Zero: 2053
Source: Ministry of Environment Urbanization and Climate Change, Türkiye
Climate Law and Institutional Framework
The Second NDC is underpinned by robust institutional frameworks established through Climate Law No. 7552, enacted on July 2, 2025. This comprehensive legislation introduces four fundamental components:
National ETS System: A national carbon market has been established for emission-intensive sectors, featuring cap-setting, allocation, and compliance periods designed to systematically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Green Taxonomy: An EU-aligned framework for sustainable finance covering six environmental objectives has been developed. This system will enter into force by the end of 2026.
Local Climate Action Plans: All 81 provinces are required to prepare Local Climate Change Action Plans. Multi-stakeholder provincial coordination boards chaired by governors have been established.
Monitoring and Reporting Infrastructure: Installation-level monitoring covers over 800 facilities in energy and industry sectors (representing 50% of total emissions). The system has been operational since 2015 and is continuously improved.
Overall Mitigation and Long-Term Targets
| Target Type | Description | Timeline | Reference/Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Updated First NDC | Reduce GHG emissions by 41% compared to BAU scenario (695 Mt CO₂ eq.) | 2030 | BAU: 1,175 Mt CO₂ eq. (2030) |
| Second NDC | Reduce emissions by 466 Mt CO₂ eq. from BAU, limiting to 643 Mt CO₂ eq. | 2035 | BAU: 1,109 Mt CO₂ eq. (2035) |
| Long-Term Target | Achieve net-zero GHG emissions | 2053 | Long-Term Strategy announced at COP29 |
| Reference Year | Net GHG emissions: 458.8 Mt CO₂ eq. (including LULUCF) | 2018 | National Inventory Document 2025 |
Emissions Trajectory Comparison
| Metric | Reference (2018) | Updated First NDC (2030) | Second NDC (2035) | Net-Zero (2053) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAU Scenario Emissions | 458.8 Mt | 1,175 Mt | 1,109 Mt | — |
| Mitigation Target Emissions | 458.8 Mt | 695 Mt | 643 Mt | Net Zero |
| Reduction vs BAU | Baseline | 480 Mt (41%) | 466 Mt (42%) | 100% |
Sectoral Mitigation Targets and Actions
Türkiye's Second NDC envisions economy-wide transformation through 49 strategies and 260 concrete actions across seven key sectors. Each sector has comprehensive policy frameworks and concrete targets.
Energy Sector (71.6% of total emissions): Scaling up renewable energy generation, promoting electrification across sectors, enhancing energy efficiency, nuclear power utilization for decarbonization, and developing battery and hydrogen infrastructure. These goals are supported by the Energy Efficiency 2030 Strategy and National Energy Plan.
Industry (IPPU: 12.8%): Implementing circular economy, establishing low-carbon pathways for aluminum, steel, cement, and fertilizer production, industrial emission management, and deploying green growth technologies. Low-Carbon Pathways (2023) and Industrial Emission By-Law support this transformation.
Transport: Modal shift to sustainable transport, electrification of vehicles (EVs, e-buses), deployment of mobility technologies, and developing sustainable transport infrastructure. The Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap (2022) supports these objectives.
Buildings (Residential & Commercial): Energy efficiency improvements in buildings, building sector decarbonization, resource-efficient construction practices, and retrofitting existing building stock. The Building Sector Decarbonization Roadmap (2023) supports this transformation.
Agriculture (13.0% of total emissions): Sustainable soil management, climate-resilient agricultural practices, drought mitigation, water efficiency measures, and livestock emission reduction strategies. The Agricultural Drought Mitigation Strategy (2023-2027) supports these objectives.
Forestry & LULUCF (Carbon sink enhancement): Afforestation programs, sustainable land use and forest management, ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, nature-based solutions, and bio-circular economy integration.
Waste (2.5% of total emissions): Zero-waste approach, improved source separation and recycling, diverting waste from landfills, circular economy principles, and sustainable consumption practices. The National Waste Management Strategy (2025-2035) supports these goals.
Adaptation Priorities: 11 Priority Sectors
Türkiye's NDC 3.0 includes comprehensive adaptation measures across 11 priority sectors, implementing 40 strategies and 129 concrete actions to enhance climate resilience:
Water Resources
Water efficiency, infrastructure modernization, drought risk assessments
Timeline: 2024-2033
Agriculture
Climate-resilient practices, drought mitigation, sustainable soil management
Timeline: 2024-2030
Urban Resilience
Climate-resilient urban planning, green infrastructure, child-sensitive health
Timeline: 2024-2030
Public Health
Health system resilience, climate-related health risk preparedness, air quality
Timeline: 2024-2030
Biodiversity
Ecosystem protection, nature-based solutions, natural areas enhancement
Timeline: 2024-2053
Tourism
Climate-resilient tourism infrastructure and adaptation measures
Timeline: 2024-2030
Industry (Adaptation)
Industrial infrastructure resilience, climate risk management
Timeline: 2024-2030
Transportation
Climate-resilient transport infrastructure and systems
Timeline: 2024-2030
Energy (Adaptation)
Energy system resilience, climate-proofing of energy infrastructure
Timeline: 2024-2030
Disaster Risk Reduction
Early warning systems, emergency preparedness, climate-resilient infrastructure
Timeline: 2024-2030
Social Development
Just transition, social protection, women and children protection, capacity building
Timeline: 2024-2030
Comprehensive Policy Framework
Turkey's NDC 3.0 is supported by a robust policy framework of 24 major strategic documentscovering all sectors and cross-cutting themes:
Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and Action Plan
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan
Long-Term Climate Strategy (LTS)
Twelfth Development Plan
Energy Efficiency 2030 Strategy
Türkiye National Energy Plan
Hydrogen Technologies Strategy
Low-Carbon Pathways (Al, Steel, Cement, Fertilizer)
Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap
Building Sector Decarbonization Roadmap
Water Efficiency Strategy
National Waste Management Strategy
National Circular Economy Strategy
Just Transition Strategy
Women's Empowerment Strategy
National Employment Strategy
Cross-Cutting Themes and Enabling Conditions
Türkiye's NDC 3.0 focuses on nine fundamental cross-cutting themes that span all sectors.
Just Transition: Workforce upskilling for green jobs, social protection mechanisms, SME support (finance, skills, knowledge, tech), regional economic resilience, and directing ETS revenues toward just transition.
Gender Equality: Equal participation in green economy, training in renewable energy, agriculture, and resource efficiency, entrepreneurship support and low-interest loans, gender-responsive budgeting, and Women's Empowerment Strategy (2024-2028).
Youth & Children: Youth Climate Envoys Platform (208 universities), Climate Friendly Campus initiative, child-sensitive health systems, LCOY Türkiye participation, and Youth Recommendation Report for NDC.
Climate Finance: Green Taxonomy (EU-aligned, by 2026), National ETS carbon pricing, green incentives and subsidies, 1.7% GDP annual investment requirement, and Green Finance Strategy (2026-2029, under preparation).
Technology Development: Hydrogen infrastructure and battery technology, low-carbon industrial pathways, green growth technologies, 3km resolution climate modelling, and public-private-academia R&D collaboration.
Capacity Building: 50 national + 36 local consultation events, 6,000+ stakeholder representatives from 175 institutions, technical training for municipalities, NGOs, and private sector, Climate Portal for progress tracking, and provincial coordination boards.
Air Quality: Clean Air Action Subsidizing Framework, industrial emission management, By-Law on Industrial Emission (Dec 2025), health system resilience, and integrated GHG and air pollutant reduction.
Circular Economy: Nationwide zero-waste approach, resource efficiency and waste diversion, source separation and recycling, sustainable consumption and production, and Circular Economy Strategy (2025-2028).
Nature-based Solutions: Afforestation and ecosystem restoration, sustainable forest management, biodiversity protection, carbon sink enhancement, and bio-circular economy integration.
Implementation and Monitoring
MRV System: Turkey operates a comprehensive Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system covering over 800 facilities in energy and industry sectors, representing approximately50% of national emissions. The system has been operational since 2015 and is continuously enhanced.
Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs): In accordance with the Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework, Turkey will submit regular BTRs to the UNFCCC, providing transparent updates on emission trends, progress toward NDC targets, and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures.
Climate Portal: The Climate Portal serves as a comprehensive digital platform for tracking implementation of both the Mitigation Strategy (49 strategies, 260 actions) and Adaptation Strategy (40 strategies, 129 actions), ensuring real-time monitoring and stakeholder transparency.
Annual Investment Mobilization: Achieving net-zero by 2053 requires additional investments equivalent to at least 1.7% of GDP annually across energy, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture, and forestry sectors. The National Green Finance Strategy (2026-2029) under preparation will outline mechanisms for mobilizing domestic and international climate finance.
Fairness and Ambition
Türkiye's Second NDC reflects the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) under the Paris Agreement. As a developing countrywith rapidly growing energy demands and an expanding economy, Turkey faces unique challenges in balancing economic development, social equity, and climate ambition.
Development Context: Turkey is implementing ambitious climate action while addressing development priorities, including infrastructure modernization, industrialization, and social welfare.
Historical Responsibility: Turkey's cumulative historical emissions remain modest compared to developed nations, yet the country is committing to substantial emission reductions.
Vulnerability: As a climate-vulnerable country affected by droughts, floods, and extreme weather, Turkey prioritizes both mitigation and adaptation with equal weight.
Just Transition: Ensuring equitable distribution of costs and benefits, protecting vulnerable communities, and providing social protection mechanisms for workers and regions affected by the transition.
Despite these challenges, Turkey's NDC represents a significant enhancement over previous commitments, demonstrating the country's determination to contribute to global climate goals while advancing sustainable development.
Access Official Documents
Download Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution official document and explore more climate data. Access the official NDC document, Turkey GHG Platform, and climate calculation tools through the links below.