Deep Analysis of Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0)
Comprehensive Review of Turkey's Enhanced Climate Commitments Under the Paris Agreement
Executive Summary
Türkiye's Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), submitted under the Paris Agreement, represents a comprehensive and enhanced commitment to climate action. Building upon the updated First NDC, this contribution establishes clear emission reduction targets for 2030 (695 Mt CO₂ eq.) and 2035 (643 Mt CO₂ eq.), while committing to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2053.
The Second NDC is underpinned by robust institutional frameworks established through Climate Law No. 7552 (enacted July 2, 2025), which introduces:
- National Emissions Trading System (ETS) for emission-intensive sectors
- Green Taxonomy aligned with EU standards covering six environmental objectives
- Local Climate Action Plans mandatory for all 81 provinces
- Provincial Coordination Boards for multi-stakeholder climate governance
The NDC covers all IPCC sectors (energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, and LULUCF) and all six major greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, SF₆), ensuring economy-wide transformation through 49 mitigation strategies and 260 concrete actions across seven key sectors.
Türkiye — Updated First NDC
Reference Year: 2012 | Target Year: 2030 | Peak Year: 2038
Source: Ministry of Environment Urbanization and Climate Change, Türkiye
Türkiye — Second NDC (NDC 3.0)
Reference Year: 2018 | Target Year: 2035 | Net Zero: 2053
Source: Ministry of Environment Urbanization and Climate Change, Türkiye
Overall Mitigation and Long-Term Targets
| Target Type | Description | Timeline | Reference/Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Updated First NDC | Reduce GHG emissions by 41% compared to BAU scenario (695 Mt CO₂ eq.) | 2030 | BAU: 1,175 Mt CO₂ eq. (2030) |
| Second NDC | Reduce GHG emissions by 466 Mt CO₂ eq. compared to BAU, limiting emissions to 643 Mt CO₂ eq. | 2035 | BAU: 1,109 Mt CO₂ eq. (2035) |
| Long-Term Target | Achieve net-zero GHG emissions | 2053 | Long-Term Strategy announced at COP29 |
| Reference Year | Net GHG emissions: 458.8 Mt CO₂ eq. (including LULUCF) | 2018 | National Inventory Document 2025 |
Emissions Trajectory Comparison
| Metric | Reference (2018) | Updated First NDC (2030) | Second NDC (2035) | Net-Zero (2053) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAU Scenario Emissions | 458.8 Mt | 1,175 Mt | 1,109 Mt | N/A |
| Mitigation Target Emissions | 458.8 Mt | 695 Mt | 643 Mt | Net-Zero |
| Reduction vs BAU | Baseline | 480 Mt (41%) | 466 Mt (42%) | 100% |
| Coverage | All sectors + LULUCF | |||
Sectoral Mitigation Targets and Actions
Energy Sector
71.6% of total emissions
- Scaling up renewable energy generation
- Promoting electrification across sectors
- Enhancing energy efficiency (Energy Efficiency 2030 Strategy)
- Nuclear power utilization for decarbonization
- Battery and hydrogen infrastructure development
Timeline: 2024-2030 (extended to 2053)
Key Policy: National Energy Plan, Hydrogen Technologies Strategy
Industry Sector
12.8% of total emissions (IPPU)
- Circular economy implementation and resource efficiency
- Low-carbon pathways for aluminum, steel, cement, and fertilizer sectors
- Industrial emission management and monitoring
- Green Growth Technology Roadmap implementation
Timeline: 2024-2030
Key Policy: Low-Carbon Pathways (2023), Industrial Emission By-Law (2025)
Transport Sector
Significant emission source
- Modal shift to sustainable transport (rail, public transit)
- Electrification of vehicles (EVs, e-buses)
- Mobility technologies deployment
- Sustainable transport infrastructure development
Timeline: 2024-2030
Key Policy: Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap (2022)
Buildings Sector
Residential & Commercial
- Energy efficiency improvements in buildings
- Building sector decarbonization roadmap
- Resource-efficient construction practices
- Retrofitting existing building stock
Timeline: 2024-2030
Key Policy: Building Sector Decarbonization Roadmap (2023)
Agriculture Sector
13.0% of total emissions
- Sustainable soil management practices
- Climate-resilient agricultural practices
- Drought mitigation measures and water efficiency
- Livestock emission reduction strategies
Timeline: 2024-2030
Key Policy: Agricultural Drought Mitigation Strategy (2023-2027)
Forestry & LULUCF
Carbon sink enhancement
- Afforestation programs and forest expansion
- Sustainable land use and forest management
- Ecosystem restoration and biodiversity protection
- Nature-based solutions and bio-circular economy
Timeline: 2024-2053
Key Policy: Long-Term Strategy (LTS), Climate Change Mitigation Strategy
Waste Sector
2.5% of total emissions
- Zero-waste approach and waste generation reduction
- Improved source separation and recycling rates
- Divert waste from landfills (composting, energy recovery)
- Circular economy principles and sustainable consumption
Timeline: 2025-2035
Key Policy: National Waste Management Strategy (2025-2035)
Adaptation Priorities: 11 Priority Sectors
Türkiye's NDC 3.0 includes comprehensive adaptation measures across 11 priority sectors, implementing 40 strategies and 129 concrete actions to enhance climate resilience:
Water Resources
Water efficiency, infrastructure modernization, drought risk assessments
Timeline: 2024-2033
Agriculture
Climate-resilient practices, drought mitigation, sustainable soil management
Timeline: 2024-2030
Urban Resilience
Climate-resilient urban planning, green infrastructure, child-sensitive health
Timeline: 2024-2030
Public Health
Health system resilience, climate-related health risk preparedness, air quality
Timeline: 2024-2030
Biodiversity
Ecosystem protection, nature-based solutions, natural areas enhancement
Timeline: 2024-2053
Tourism
Climate-resilient tourism infrastructure and adaptation measures
Timeline: 2024-2030
Industry
Industrial infrastructure resilience, climate risk management
Timeline: 2024-2030
Transportation
Climate-resilient transport infrastructure and systems
Timeline: 2024-2030
Energy
Energy system resilience, climate-proofing of energy infrastructure
Timeline: 2024-2030
Disaster Risk Reduction
Early warning systems, emergency preparedness, climate-resilient infrastructure
Timeline: 2024-2030
Social Development
Just transition, social protection, women and children protection, capacity building
Timeline: 2024-2030
Institutional and Governance Framework
Climate Law No. 7552
- ✅ Adopted: July 2, 2025 | Published: July 9, 2025
- 📋 First comprehensive climate legislation in Turkey
- 🏛️ Defines roles and responsibilities across government
- 📊 Establishes legal basis for ETS and Green Taxonomy
- 🗺️ Mandates Local Climate Action Plans in all 81 provinces
Emissions Trading System (ETS)
- 🏭 National carbon market for emission-intensive sectors
- 📈 Cap-setting, allocation, and compliance periods
- ⚖️ Legal basis established under Climate Law
- 🔄 Revenues directed to just transition and climate action
- 🚀 Status: Under development (secondary legislation pending)
Green Taxonomy
- 🇪🇺 EU-aligned framework for sustainable finance
- 🌍 Covers 6 environmental objectives
- 💼 Guides investment decisions and green finance
- 📅 Timeline: Enter into force by end of 2026
MRV Infrastructure
- 📊 Installation-level monitoring of 800+ facilities
- ⚡ Covers energy and industry (50% of total emissions)
- ✅ Operational since 2015, continuously improved
- 🌐 Climate Portal for comprehensive tracking
Local Climate Governance
- 🗺️ All 81 provinces required to prepare Local Climate Action Plans
- 👥 Provincial Coordination Boards chaired by governors
- 🤝 Multi-stakeholder engagement at local level
- 📋 Mandated by Climate Law (ongoing implementation)
National Coordination
- 🏛️ Climate Change and Adaptation Coordination Board (CCACB)
- 👔 22 member institutions, inter-ministerial coordination
- ⚖️ Chaired by Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change
- 🌍 Oversees national climate strategy implementation
Comprehensive Policy Framework
Turkey's NDC 3.0 is supported by a robust policy framework of 24 major strategic documents covering all sectors and cross-cutting themes:
| Policy Document | Type | Timeline | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Change Mitigation Strategy and Action Plan | Implementation Strategy | 2024-2030 | ✓ Adopted |
| Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan | Implementation Strategy | 2024-2030 | ✓ Adopted |
| Long-Term Climate Strategy (LTS) | Long-Term Strategy | 2024-2053 | ✓ Adopted |
| Twelfth Development Plan | National Development | 2024-2028 | ✓ Adopted |
| Energy Efficiency 2030 Strategy | Sectoral Strategy | 2024-2030 | ✓ Adopted |
| Türkiye National Energy Plan | Sectoral Strategy | Long-term | ✓ Adopted |
| Hydrogen Technologies Strategy and Roadmap | Technology Roadmap | Long-term | ✓ Adopted |
| Low-Carbon Pathways (Al, Steel, Cement, Fertilizer) | Sectoral Roadmap | 2023 onwards | ✓ Adopted |
| Green Growth Technology Roadmap | Technology Strategy | 2023 onwards | ✓ Adopted |
| Mobility Vehicles and Technologies Roadmap | Sectoral Roadmap | 2022 onwards | ✓ Adopted |
| Building Sector Decarbonization Roadmap | Sectoral Roadmap | 2023 onwards | ✓ Adopted |
| Water Efficiency Strategy and Action Plan | Sectoral Strategy | 2023-2033 | ✓ Adopted |
| Agricultural Drought Mitigation Strategy | Sectoral Strategy | 2023-2027 | ✓ Adopted |
| National Waste Management Strategy | Sectoral Strategy | 2025-2035 | ✓ Adopted |
| National Circular Economy Strategy | Sectoral Strategy | 2025-2028 | ✓ Adopted |
| Just Transition Strategy | Cross-cutting Strategy | TBD | Under Prep |
| Women's Empowerment Strategy | Social Policy | 2024-2028 | ✓ Adopted |
| Child Rights Strategy | Social Policy | 2023-2028 | ✓ Adopted |
| National Employment Strategy | Social Policy | 2025-2028 | ✓ Adopted |
| National Green Finance Strategy | Finance Strategy | 2026-2029 | Under Prep |
Cross-Cutting Themes and Enabling Conditions
⚖️Just Transition
- •Workforce upskilling for green jobs
- •Social protection mechanisms
- •SME support (finance, skilled labor, knowledge, tech access)
- •Regional economic resilience
- •ETS revenues for just transition
👩💼Gender Equality & Women's Empowerment
- •Equal participation in green economy
- •Training in renewable energy, agriculture, resource efficiency
- •Entrepreneurship support & low-interest loans
- •Gender-responsive budgeting
- •Women's Empowerment Strategy (2024-2028)
🎓Youth & Children Engagement
- •Youth Climate Envoys Platform (208 universities)
- •Climate Friendly Campus initiative
- •Child-sensitive health systems
- •LCOY Türkiye participation
- •Youth Recommendation Report for NDC
💰Climate Finance
- •Green Taxonomy (EU-aligned, by 2026)
- •National ETS carbon pricing
- •Green incentives and subsidies
- •1.7% GDP annual investment requirement
- •Green Finance Strategy (2026-2029, under prep)
🔬Technology Development & Innovation
- •Hydrogen infrastructure and battery tech
- •Low-carbon industrial pathways
- •Green growth technologies
- •Climate modelling (3km resolution RCM)
- •Public-private-academia R&D collaboration
📚Capacity Building & Awareness
- •50 national + 36 local consultation events
- •6,000+ stakeholder representatives from 175 institutions
- •Technical training for municipalities, NGOs, private sector
- •Climate Portal for tracking progress
- •Provincial coordination boards
🌬️Air Quality & Health Co-benefits
- •Clean Air Action Subsidizing Framework
- •Industrial emission management
- •By-Law on Industrial Emission (Dec 2025)
- •Health system resilience
- •Integrated GHG and air pollutant reduction
♻️Circular Economy
- •Zero-waste approach nationwide
- •Resource efficiency and waste diversion
- •Source separation and recycling
- •Sustainable consumption and production
- •Circular Economy Strategy (2025-2028)
🌳Nature-based Solutions
- •Afforestation and ecosystem restoration
- •Sustainable forest management
- •Biodiversity protection
- •Carbon sink enhancement
- •Bio-circular economy integration
🌍International Cooperation
- •Paris Agreement implementation as developing country
- •Kigali Amendment compliance (HFC phasedown)
- •Global Stocktake alignment
- •Technology transfer and capacity building
- •EU Green Deal alignment (under revision)
Implementation and Monitoring
📊 MRV System
Turkey operates a comprehensive Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) system covering over 800 facilities in energy and industry sectors, representing approximately 50% of national emissions. The system has been operational since 2015 and is continuously enhanced to align with international best practices.
📈 Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs)
In accordance with the Paris Agreement Enhanced Transparency Framework, Turkey will submit regular BTRs to the UNFCCC, providing transparent updates on emission trends, progress toward NDC targets, and implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures.
🌐 Climate Portal
The Climate Portal serves as a comprehensive digital platform for tracking implementation of both the Mitigation Strategy (49 strategies, 260 actions) and Adaptation Strategy (40 strategies, 129 actions), ensuring real-time monitoring and stakeholder transparency.
💼 Annual Investment Mobilization
Achieving net-zero by 2053 requires additional investments equivalent to at least 1.7% of GDP annually across energy, buildings, industry, transport, agriculture, and forestry sectors. The National Green Finance Strategy (2026-2029) under preparation will outline mechanisms for mobilizing domestic and international climate finance.
Fairness and Ambition
Türkiye's Second NDC reflects the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) under the Paris Agreement. As a developing country with rapidly growing energy demands and an expanding economy, Turkey faces unique challenges in balancing economic development, social equity, and climate ambition.
Key Fairness Considerations:
- Development Context: Turkey is implementing ambitious climate action while addressing development priorities, including infrastructure modernization, industrialization, and social welfare.
- Historical Responsibility: Turkey's cumulative historical emissions remain modest compared to developed nations, yet the country is committing to substantial emission reductions.
- Vulnerability: As a climate-vulnerable country affected by droughts, floods, and extreme weather, Turkey prioritizes both mitigation and adaptation with equal weight.
- Just Transition: Ensuring equitable distribution of costs and benefits, protecting vulnerable communities, and providing social protection mechanisms for workers and regions affected by the transition.
Despite these challenges, Turkey's NDC represents a significant enhancement over previous commitments, demonstrating the country's determination to contribute to global climate goals while advancing sustainable development.
Explore More Climate Data and Tools
Dive deeper into Turkey's greenhouse gas emissions data, sectoral analysis, and climate policy tools on the Turkey GHG Platform